Global FX Strategy Research
Foreign Exchange
Global
Research Note
ab
UBS Investment Research
The Morning Adviser
Views
Zurich, 4 May 2007
Geoffrey Yu
USD: Stronger ahead of payrolls
EUR: We adjust our rate call
AUD: RBA statement even more neutral
SEK: Riksbank to stay on hold
GBP: Services PMI declines
IDR: It’s alive
TWD: Politics on the agenda
TRY: Calm political scene but risks remain
Tech: AUDUSD under pressure
G10 FX
USD: Stronger ahead of payrolls
The dollar continued to firm overnight in Asia, maintaining its momentum after stronger USD data yesterday. The
greenback traded in a 1.3537-1.3557 range against the EUR and in a 120.27-120.46 range against the JPY. The nonmanufacturing
ISM index surprised at 56.0 (cons. 53.0) while jobless claims dropped to 305k (cons. 325k). After a string
of upside surprises this week the dollar has rebounded to its highest levels in three weeks, while US yields have managed
a similar record. The greenback’s recent rally has mainly been on the back of stronger data; intrinsically this is a
testament to resilient risk sentiment and the strength of growth trades. For the US, labour data remains key to sustaining
market confidence and today’s non-farm payrolls (12:30 GMT, cons. +100k) would set the tone for Fed expectations in
the run-up to the next week’s FOMC meeting. A strong showing would present the Fed with a much better case to
clearly pronounce its continued hawkish bias and avoid the confusion seen in March. We remain short EURUSD as a
trade recommendation and keep our 1m forecast of 1.33 for EURUSD, though we do note that the dollar remains
exposed to weaker economic fundamentals. In recent weeks the market has been much more responsive to downside US
data, and until recently signs of an economic pick-up have been greeted cautiously. Elsewhere, yesterday Treasury
Secretary Paulson spoke on Sino-US economic relations again, repeating his call for faster progress on CNY
liberalisation and the need for short-term progress. Policymakers will be active in the next few weeks: aside from the
FOMC meeting, the Eurogroup meets on Monday where the strength of the EUR may be a topic; the 2nd round of the
Sino-US strategic economic dialogue associated lawmaker summits will be held in mid-May, and the next G7 finance
ministers meeting will be held on May 18-19th. Investors should be on the watch for risk aversion and USDJPY may
especially be exposed to these events.
Ahead today, the unemployment rate in the labour situation report is expected to tick higher to 4.5%. Fed’s Geithner
speaks at 1345 GMT on “Reflections on the Changing Global Economy”. Fed’s Hoenig speaks at 1620 GMT.
EUR: We adjust our rate call
Eurozone PPI in April increased by 0.3% m/m in March after 0.3% in February, in line with expectations. The energy
component of Eurozone PPI rose by 0.6% in March after 0.4% in February, consistent with the increases in oil prices
The Morning Adviser
UBS 2
over the month in March, but we note that most of this will already have shown up in the HICP numbers. The y/y rate
slowed from 2.9% to 2.7%, and excluding energy, PPI y/y slowed from 3.5% in February to 3.4% in March. Underlying
PPI inflation has remained within a 3.4% - 3.6% range since 2006, and as such we believe that the ECB will likely
conclude that pricing pressures in the manufacturing sector have not shifted materially downwards, consistent with the
still-high level of the Eurozone PMIs. Our economists continue to expect the ECB to raise rates to 4.00% in June, and
hike another 25bp to 4.25% by year-end, but now expect rates to reach 4.75% in 2008. This is a non-consensus view
presently, and we would not look for local rate developments to provide much further euro support near-term.
AUD: RBA statement even more neutral
The RBA Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP) was released this morning, and contributed to a decline in 2-year
yields. The statement was probably even more neutral than in the February release, and suggests that the RBA will not
be lifting for the next 6 months. The RBA lowered its near-term inflation forecasts from 2.75% to 2.5% and said that
core inflation in 2007 could even be "possibly a little lower". However, we remain concerned that ongoing global
buoyancy, and a relatively low real cash rate, may ultimately deteriorate the inflation outlook enough to see a rate hike
towards end year for now our economists see the RBA on hold. We think AUD has underperformed other major
currencies in recent days and is approaching a buy, assuming that US non-farm payrolls is a non-event, and the carry
environment continues.
SEK: Riksbank to stay on hold
We are with consensus in expecting the Riksbank to leave the repo rate unchanged at 3.25% at today’s policy rates
meeting. Stronger May wage settlements have boosted inflation expectations and rates has priced in a less-than-even
chance of tightening. However we continue to see a wage-led pickup in inflation growth during Q2 as unlikely and
remain long NOKSEK as a trade recommendation. In contrast the Norgesbank will likely issue a hawkish June inflation
report and report stronger than expected CPI next week. However our economists have also adjusted their rate calls for
Scandinavia as the Eurozone remains Norway and Sweden’s largest trading partner, and better Eurozone growth would
lead to more caution by the Norges Bank and Riksbank in the face of inflation pressures. We now see Norwegian rates at
5.5% by year-end 2008 and 4.25% for a less-aggressive Sweden.
GBP: Services PMI declines
Services PMI for April fell from 57.6 in March to 57.2 in April, below consensus of 57.5. The survey shows that
business activity has fallen in three of the past four months and has now eased to its lowest level in seven months. The
input price and the prices charged balances eased to their lowest levels in four months, which is likely to provide some
relief to the MPC. The text of the survey suggests that strong competitive pressures prevented firms from passing on
higher past input costs. Taking all the April PMIs together, composite activity balance is slightly higher in April
compared with the Q1 average, mainly because of the strength in the manufacturing survey. By contrast, the composite
prices balance has eased over the same period. The softer tone of the recent services surveys have also been reflected in
the official data with service sector growth easing from a trend-like 0.9% in Q4 to a below-trend 0.7% in Q1. We expect
services output to ease further in response to the policy rate tightening so far and the widely expected rate hike next
week, and for the prices balance to continue falling as activity slows. With markets pricing a high probability of a further
tightening beyond May, we continue to see upside risks for EURGBP, and continue to favour buying the cross on dips
below our 0.68 1-month target.
Emerging FX
IDR: It’s alive
USDIDR finally stirred, slipping below its recent range to the lowest level in four months today. This move is in favour
of our April 13 recommendation to go long the IDR funded by the TWD. In initiating this recommendation we noted the
600% rise in foreign direct investment applications in Q1, increased trade surpluses in recent months on strong non-oil
exports and the higher net foreign buying in the stock market in recent weeks as factors that would support the rupiah.
Reserve numbers for April released on Wednesday also showed increased reserve accumulation to an average of
US$1.9bn a month in the last three months. This is triple the average of US$600mn reserves accumulated per month in
The Morning Adviser
UBS 3
2006. We think BI would be more mindful of the money multiplier from liquidity injected through intervention towards
the end of the easing cycle. And given the high fiscal cost to sterilization of intervention, we think BI would be more
tolerant of rupiah strength than risk a jump in money supply and push inflation up again. We now believe these positive
flows are beginning to filter through to the currency and we continue to look for an overshoot to 8900 in 3 months. As
for the short TWDIDR recommendation, we are currently around 1.8% in the money including carry (working off an
implied carry of 4.275% per annum) and we have moved our stop down to entry before taking into account carry (spot
reference: 275.08) earlier this week.
TWD: Politics on the agenda
It may be 10 months until the March 2008 Presidential elections but Taiwan’s political scene is already moving into
gear. The opposition KMT party this week named former mayor of Taipei, Ma Ying-Jeou, as its candidate for the
election despite the charges he faces of misappropriating funds while serving as mayor. The case is not expected to
conclude until June at the earliest but Taiwan’s constitution allows for two appeals, during which time the accused is free
to participate in any political race. Meanwhile, the ruling DPP party will hold their own primaries from this weekend,
with their presidential candidate being announced next weekend. However, this is not likely to lead to any major
surprises, with either Frank Hsie or Su Tseng-Chang the likely winner. Both these candidates are hard-line proindependence
and are not likely to depart significantly from the current line the DPP takes in its approach towards crossstraits
relations with China. But one development that could be supportive for our short TWD recommendation is the inprincipal
parliamentary agreement to allow insurers to invest as much as 45% of their total assets in overseas
investments announced today. This is a compromise from the 50% proposal rejected earlier this month but higher than
the current 35% cap. The law could be ratified as early as the end of May. Given that there are around TWD8 tn worth
of insurers’ assets in Taiwan, this could mean up to TWD350 bn (US$10.6 bn) in potential outflows after taking into
account other restrictions like hedging and swaps when the decision becomes law. The market may unwind some short
TWD positions with politics back on the agenda this weekend, but we would hold on to our short TWD long IDR
position for now.
TRY: Calm political scene but risks remain
The lira traded broadly sideways yesterday amid a dearth of fresh political catalysts. The political picture appears calmer
at this point than would have been expected, spurring a bullish market reaction. However, we think that political risk has
the potential to deteriorate quickly without warning, and USDTRY could suddenly head significantly higher as current
TRY longs seem contingent on everything staying calm. Elections are now set for July 22. Yesterday, the AKP won key
support from a small opposition party for a package of sweeping constitutional changes that include a plan to have the
president elected by the people, not by parliament. The backing of the centre-right ANAP means the government should
have enough votes to push the reforms through parliament. Data-wise, yesterday’s inflation print was much stronger than
expected, and flew in the face of rate cut convictions. Though we closed out the short Turkey leg of our defensive trade
recommendation (short TRY and ZAR against BRL), we still see risk from USDTRY upside in the current climate.
The Morning Adviser
UBS 4
Technical FX
AUDUSD Under Pressure
EURUSD has probed the 1.3540 support as the pair continues to pull away from recent highs. Continued weakness
would expose the next support at 1.3490 marking the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 1.2865 to 1.3683. Resistance
is at 1.3623 this morning, the May 3 high. USDCHF cleared last week’s 1.2128 high, exposing the 1.2246 April 12
resistance. Tuesday’s 1.2050 low marks important support; only a break there would signal a return of the old bear trend.
As long as it stays above the 1.9823 April 3 breakout high, GBPUSD remains in a bullish state. A move above
Tuesday’s high at 2.0076 is now required to clear the way for a run at the 2.0134 April 18 trend high. Clearance of
1.9823 would instead expose 1.9591, the April 9 low. USDJPY maintains a bullish theme having cleared the 119.89
April 16 high, exposing 120.54 level (0.764 of 122.20-115.15). There is little resistance above there till the 121.65
February 22 high. Initial support is at Tuesday’s 119.06 reaction low. AUDUSD broke the 0.8233 April 24 low,
damaging the underlying short-term bull trend. The next support is the 0.8150 April 9 low. Initial resistance is at
0.8285, the May 2 high. USDCAD keeps its aim on the next support at the 1.1029 September 1 prominent reaction low
ahead of the 1.0929 trend low from May 31. Resistance is located in the 1.1230 to 1.1249 congestion area.
EURJPY focuses at 164.00
EURCHF keeps its focus on the 1.6574 July 1998 synthetic high. Only a break of support from last Friday’s 1.6409 low
would damage the underlying bull trend in the short run. After clearing the 162.43 April 16 high, EURJPY keeps its
overall focus on the upside. The rise above Friday’s 163.48 extreme exposes 164.00 ahead of 2-month 166.18 channel
resistance. Initial support is around last Friday’s 162.20 reaction low. EURGBP is caught between resistance at the
0.6844 April 27 high and Tuesday’s 0.6799 low.
The Morning Adviser
UBS 5
Key Events
04 May 2007 Source: UBS Global Economics
Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Previous Consensus
South Africa 6:00 M3 (Mar) y-o-y n/a 22.9% 20.0
South Africa 6:00 M3 (Mar) ZAR bn n/a 1416.8 1443
South Africa 6:00 Private Sector Credit (Mar) y-o-y n/a 26.1% 24.5%
Switerzerland 6:00 SNB Publishes Balance Sheet n/a n/a n/a n/a
Spain 7:00 Industrial Output NSA (Mar) y-o-y n/f 3.5% 1.9%
Spain 7:00 Industrial Output WDA (Mar) y-o-y 4.0% 3.5% 3.9%
Spain 7:00 Unemployment MoM Net (Apr) 000s n/a -15.8 n/a
Sweden 7:30 Riksbank Interest Rate Announcement % 3.25% 3.25% 3.25%
Italy 7:45 PMI Services (Apr) n/a 55 54.1 54.3
France 7:50 PMI Services (Apr) n/a 58.5 59.2 59.4
Germany 7:55 PMI Services (Apr) n/a 58.1 57.5 57.9
Brazil 8:00 Fipe CPI (Apr) m-o-m n/a 0.1% n/a
Taiwan 8:00 CPI 2001=100 NSA (Apr) y-o-y 0.9% 0.8% n/a
Euro area 8:00 PMI Services (Apr) n/a 57.7 57.4 57.6
Euro area 8:00 Composite PMI (Apr) n/a 57.9 57.4 n/a
Norway 8:00 Unemployment rate(AKU) (Feb) % n/a 2.7% 2.6%
Euro area 9:00 Retail Sales (Mar) m-o-m n/a 0.3% n/a
Euro area 9:00 Retail Sales (Mar) y-o-y n/a 1.2% n/a
Brazil 12:30 Industrial Production (Mar) y-o-y n/a 3.0% 3.6%
Brazil 12:30 Industrial Production (Mar) m-o-m sadj n/a 0.3% n/a
United States 12:30 Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) m-o-m n/a 180 k 100 k
United States 12:30 Unemployment Rate (Apr) % n/a 4.4% 4.5%
United States 12:30 Average Hourly Earnings (Apr) m-o-m n/a 0.3% 0.3%
United States 12:30 Average Weekly Hours (Apr) lvl n/a 33.9 33.9
United States 13:45
Fed's Geithner Speaks on Global Economy
in Montreal
Canada 14:00 Ivey Purchasing Mgr Index (Apr) lvl n/a 67.3 57.3
Argentina 19:00 CPI (Apr) m-o-m n/a 0.8% n/a
United States 19:00 Treasury Strips (Apr) Apr n/a n/a n/a
Mexico 19:30 Consumer Confidence (Apr) index level n/a 106.5 106
UK 8:30 UK Car Production (Mar) 3mth/yr ago n/a -7.6% n/a
Malaysia 9:00 Money Supply M3 (Mar) y-o-y 14.0% 13.9% n/a
Italy 9:00 Hourly Wages (Mar) m-o-m 0.3% 0.1% n/a
Italy 9:00 Hourly Wages (Mar) y-o-y 2.6% 2.6% n/a
United States 12:30 Employment Cost Index (Q1) q-o-q 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
United States 12:30 GDP (Q1 Adv) q-o-q 1.8% 2.5% 1.8%
Mexico 14:00 Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting n/a n/a 7.0% n/a
The Morning Adviser
UBS 6
Global Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by UBS AG or an affiliate thereof (“UBS”). In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA.
This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs
of any specific recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No
representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, except with respect to information
concerning UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. The report
should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and may differ or be
contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of UBS as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous
assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales
personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. UBS is under no obligation to update or keep current the information
contained herein. UBS relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of UBS. The
compensation of the analyst who prepared this report is determined exclusively by research management and senior management (not including investment banking). Analyst compensation is
not based on investment banking revenues, however, compensation may relate to the revenues of UBS Investment Bank as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part.
The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Options, derivative products and futures are not suitable for all investors, and
trading in these instruments is considered risky. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may involve a high degree of risk and may be highly volatile in response to fluctuations in interest rates
and other market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security
or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative. Neither UBS nor any of its
affiliates, nor any of UBS' or any of its affiliates, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Additional
information will be made available upon request.
United Kingdom, Sweden and Netherlands: Except as otherwise specified herein, this material is communicated by UBS Limited, a subsidiary of UBS AG, to persons who are
market counterparties or intermediate customers (as detailed in the FSA Rules) and is only available to such persons. The information contained herein does not apply to, and
should not be relied upon by, private customers. France: Prepared by UBS Limited and distributed by UBS Limited and UBS Securities France SA. Germany: Prepared by UBS
Limited. Distributed by UBS Limited and UBS Investment Bank AG. UBS Limited is regulated by FSA. UBS Investment Bank AG is regulated by Bundesanstalt fur
Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht.
Spain: Prepared by UBS Limited and distributed by UBS Securities Espana SV SA, a member of the Comision Nacional del Mercado de Valores. Russia: Prepared and distributed
by Brunswick UBS ( a division of UBS Securities LLC). Switzerland: Distributed by UBS AG to persons who are institutional investors only. Italy: Should persons receiving this
research in Italy require additional information or wish to effect transactions in the relevant securities, they should contact Giubergia UBS SIM SpA, an associate of UBS SA, in
Milan and a member of the Commissione Nazionale per le Societa e la Borsa. South Africa: UBS South Africa (Pty) Limited (incorporating J.D. Anderson & Co.) is a member of the
JSE Securities Exchange SA. United States: Distributed to US persons by either UBS Securities LLC or by UBS Financial Services Inc., subsidiaries of UBS AG; or by a group,
subsidiary or affiliate of UBS AG that is not registered as a US broker-dealer (a “non-US affiliate”), to major US institutional investors only. UBS Securities LLC or UBS Financial
Services Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate when distributed to US persons by UBS Securities LLC or UBS Financial
Services Inc. All transactions by a US person in the securities mentioned in this report must be effected through UBS Securities LLC or UBS Financial Services Inc., and not
through a non-US affiliate. Canada: Distributed by UBS Securities Canada Inc., a subsidiary of UBS AG and a member of the principal Canadian stock exchanges & CIPF. A
statement of its financial condition and a list of its directors and senior officers will be provided upon request. Hong Kong: Distributed by UBS Securities Asia Limited. Singapore:
Distributed by UBS Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd. or UBS AG, Singapore Branch. Japan: Distributed by UBS Securities Japan Ltd to institutional investors only. Australia:
Distributed by UBS AG (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No. 231087) and UBS Securities Australia Ltd (Holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No. 231098)
only to “Wholesale” clients as defined by s761G of the Corporations Act 2001. New Zealand: Distributed by UBS New Zealand Ltd.
© 2007 UBS. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
ab
G10 Strategy
Mansoor Mohi-uddin
+41-44-239 9547
Daniel Katzive
+1-203-719 1291
Ashley Davies
+65-6431 8604
Benedikt Germanier
+41-44-239 5400
Geoffrey Yu
+41-44-239 9543
Manuel Oliveri
+41-44-239 3339
Adam Myers
+44-20-7568 0605
Alina Anishchanka
+44-20-7568 0605
Sophia Hardy
+1-203-719 7376
Emerging Strategy
Filippo Nencioni
+1-203-719 7657
Bhanu Baweja
+44-20-7568 6833
Nizam Idris
+65 6836 5113
Alvaro Vivanco
+1-203-7193252
Roderick Ngotho
+44 207 567 4231
Metals Strategy
John Reade
+44-20-7567 6755
Robin Bhar
+44-20-7567 7850
Technical Strategy
Jason Perl
+44-20-7567 2447
Taso Anastasiou
+41-44-239 9104
James Chorek
+1-203-719 1051
Tow Keong Su
+65 6836 5287